Tuesday, February 09, 2010
HUCKABAMA
I imagine you've seen Jonathan Martin's Politico story about a poll in the land of the Crimson Tide:
Thirty-three percent of Alabama Republicans polled support the former Arkansas governor for the 2012 presidential nomination, while 23 percent said they would back Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee. The next closest Republican to Huckabee and Palin is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who takes 12 percent of the vote.
And:
Twenty-four percent of Alabama Republicans said they were undecided on whom to support in the race.
As Martin says, Gov. Huckabee was a force in the South last time, and this is an indication he would be one again in 2012. That is fair enough. But let me give you a few scattered thoughts:
1. I'm not sure he runs. He's got a pretty sweet (and influential) life as a Fox News host, and he seems clearly to enjoy that side of things.
2. I'm willing to bet most of those Alabama Republicans have not heard about his clemencies, principally because most Alabama Republicans are probably not obsessively following presidential politics at this stage of the game. (Ah, to be normal!) And I'm willing to bet that when they do, Gov. Huckabee's numbers shrink.
3. If he and Gov. Palin both run (a prospect I find even less likely than just Gov. Huckabee's running) I bet you they fight each other for most of the evangelical vote, as they seem to do in this poll, and Gov. Romney runs away with most of the rest -- including the vast majority of those who expressed a preference for the #2 placer in this poll, a guy named "Other."